Catastrophic floods may become more frequent in the 10 times




Catastrophic floods may become more frequent in the 10 times


Climate change will lead to an even greater flood of the rivers. This is the conclusion a group of scientists who studied 11 individual climate models.

Floods are among the largest natural disasters related to climate change. Over the past ten years, the annual flood losses reached tens of billions of dollars every year thousands of people are dying, says Yukiko Hirabayashi of the University of Tokyo. His scientific work has been published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change on June 9, which is devoted to the problems of global climate change.

The motivation for a new study has served as an indication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the need for more accurate modeling of river flooding.

Scientists have identified an increase in the frequency of river flooding in Southeast Asia, South India, East Africa and the northern Andes. But the river in some areas of Northern and Eastern Europe, Anatolia, Central Asia and central North America and southern South America, on the contrary, are less likely to flood.


The estimated number of people who can be in areas prone to flooding, depending on temperature changes. The air temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius could put 27 million people at risk. The warming of 4 degrees will increase the number of potential victims to 62 million. The figure will rise to 93 million if the temperature jump would be even greater – 6 degrees.

Scientists predict that in this century flood will occur every 10-50 years. But in the last century, floods were rare – once every 100 years.

“This is a very important and useful information, which should be taken into account in the development of adaptive strategies. The analysis of the dynamics of floods on a global scale shows an increase in the frequency of natural disasters in developing countries “, – said the researcher Brendan Yongman from the Free University of Amsterdam.

Thus, regardless of the climate scenario, floods will become more frequent on the planet, and will increase the number of potential victims.

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