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Future | Nuclear Disarmament
Nuclear weapons are distributed in more and more countries. Where this trend will lead us in the future? Nuclear weapons are usually created to enhance security or prestige, but it obviously pleasing to the process of the country there is a side effect: the increase in rates on a conflict that puts humanity in an awkward position. It also emphasizes the image of its owner as “dangerous” – hardly ordinary people will strive to do so in their personal lives (in the yard not 90). If deconstruction of nuclear weapons speaks of the internal contradictions, its distribution has become a good example. But let’s look at the process more closely.
The first country that has experienced nuclear warheads, the United States was – 1945. Soviet warheads experienced the first in 1949, followed by the United Kingdom (1952), France (1960), China (1964), India (1974), Israel (probably 1979), South Africa (probably 1979), Pakistan (1998) and North Korea (2006).
Despite the uncertainty of the test in 1979, South Africa definitely has developed nuclear weapons, which was later destroyed, and few dispute that Israel also holds stocks, although the government does not acknowledge this fact. Thus, we see that the program is the development of nuclear weapons is bearing fruit (seeds of destruction generate hazardous fruit) – 10 over 68 years by 2013, every 6-7 years, with an interval of 0 to 19. It turns out that 8 of 9 intervals of less than 10 years, which brings us to the statistical probability: the next country that becomes nuclear, do it in 2016. They say that Iran wants nuclear weapons. Its nuclear weapons led to a conflict with the United States and Israel. The conflict involved the murder of Iranian nuclear engineers, their execution and disappearance provoked by Iran in order to prevent leaks and security breaches. When it comes to the development of nuclear weapons, Iran is not playing the game and where the weaker kindness treats its developers than even the same West – remember the “misunderstood nezlodeev” Robert Oppenheimer, Ethel Rosenberg, Mordechai Vanunu and Julius Rosenberg.
The end result of Iran’s nuclear efforts at the time of this writing is unknown, but be sure to clear up one point.
If current trends continue, the number of nuclear countries will double during the lifetime of today’s children. If it is not stopped, the number will grow even more. This growth is serious in part because nuclear countries can attack non-nuclear, that will be a crisis not only for the culture of the country, but for the world as a whole. And what will the international response? Provocations against the aggressor countries from other countries of the aggressors. “We were attacked, well, we will not stay on the sidelines.” The matter can be dangerous and nasty.
Mathematically, that is due to one of the futurologists skills in predicting the future, doubling the size of the relatively small nuclear club is almost double the number of potential attacks on weak non-nuclear countries. For example, at 10 nuclear countries and 200 non-nuclear capability is 2000 attacks, because each of the 10 countries can attack each of the 200. 20 nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear form 190 pairs 3800 attacks, nearly twice as much. This sad trend is limited when the number of countries with nuclear ammunition comes close to the number of vulnerable countries, as the number of unilateral attacks will be aligned. If all countries have nuclear capability, the possibility of a nuclear strike will tend to zero. But this is unlikely to elicit a sigh of relief, because in that case the number of possible nuclear exchange between the two nuclear states increases. And not only increases, but also accelerates with each new member of the nuclear club.
If the probability of an attack within the next year is low, the probability for the next two years, approximately twice as high. And although the size of the increments will decrease the probability of each year, the total probability will get closer and closer to 1, that is a certainty.
What to do?
Premonition of Civil War. Dali
The great philosopher Spinoza thought that everything has a reason, these reasons can be found, and no effort should not be sorry to find them. If knowledge – force, then a better understanding of the spread will give more power to control nuclear weapons. To better understand the statistics of the past can tell us about the future of nuclear disarmament, to better understand statistically what the historical trend. We already know that the next country acquire nuclear capability in 2016. But this is a rough guess: a more detailed analysis will lead to a more detailed hypothesis. Need a metric to assess the rate of proliferation of nuclear weapons.
If limited to one count of members of the nuclear club, the metric is coarse, like a meter to measure up without centimeters. More subtle metric takes into account the steps towards settling down nuclear weapons as full members. Take, for example, the acquisition of the relevant assumptions: centrifugal cleaning equipment isotopes that decay in materials like uranium, as well as the delivery system of the curious cargo. The members of the nuclear club, developing a nuclear branch, are developing devices that accelerate the decay (H-bomb), and complex two-stage systems, as well as charges of second-generation (neutron bomb). It is worth noting the development of such systems outside of the host country. Such third-party developers are more than academic interest. For example, the status of such countries as Cuba, nearly brought the world to nuclear war in 1962 (Cuban Missile Crisis).
Cases of disarmament should also be taken into account in the metric. For example, South Africa has developed its own nuclear weapons, but after voluntarily disarmed. Another example – the collapse of the Soviet Union. Ukraine for a short time was the owner of the third largest arsenal of nuclear missiles in the world until the weapon is not gone to his de facto owner, Russia. The metric is based on the data presented above, will go a long way, calculating target different countries and taking into account the trend of disarmament.
Moment. The metric of this type should be based on statistical analysis. But the statistics are not the essence of truth. Statistics do not determine the cause. Thus, if we find out the reasons, we can change the statistical trend, preventing further spread. It is important to identify the “weak points” in the system. Key points will include the country’s ability to a) attack, and b) to respond to the attack, and c) threaten to attack, and d) be threatened attack, and e) reduce the threat of attack e) sell charges, g) authority, and so on. If there is an opportunity to influence these individual factors can directly affect the cause of the spread. Of course, this is not an easy task. How is it done?
Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger once responded to a question during a press conference why the causes of the spread of nuclear weapons have not been explored so deeply? Here’s what he said, the new recording, simply repeat the old, and how to determine the point at which the research will be superfluous? In other words, he spoke in favor of giving up, not investigate the matter further. Stupidity of his answer surprised many, because this person is directly responsible for the security of the country. By suppressing the search for answers to important not only for the country but for all of humanity, questions, Weinberger comes not just illogical and incompetent – it is dangerous.
Say what you like, and peaceful nuclear energy promises us more benefits than the promise of a nuclear war.
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Tags: Atoms , future , nuclear weapons .
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