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Interview | Ray Kurzweil and his artificial intelligence in Google
Interview | Ray Kurzweil and his artificial intelligence in Google
Google has always been for artificial intelligence, so it is no surprise when Ray Kurzweil, one of the leading experts in the field, joined the company. It happened at the end of last year. Nevertheless, many workers search giant eyebrows went up when Kurzweil said that he could create an artificial intelligence.
Add to all this the fact that the next employee search engine was Geoffrey Hinton – “godfather” of computer neural networks. It seems, Google has acquired the most daring developers of artificial intelligence. Someone finds it fascinating one – disturbing. Someone – and so, and others.
On Tuesday, Kurzweil made a small gathering at Google, timed to coincide with the upcoming movie Will Smith’s “After AD» (After Earth), apparently bound futuristic concept movie with this futurism. The discussion addressed the need of space travel and the resolution of the world’s energy problems using solar energy. Once all the participants went away, Kurzweil gave a small interview with Wired, we present to you and.
Wired: Just finished “Googley” get-together, and Will Smith said that he has a copy of your book, because it is shot in all sorts of sci-fi movies. How do you see science fiction?
Ray Kurzweil: Fantasy is a great opportunity to speculate on what might happen. I like futurologist, it throws up a scenario. But the creators of fiction poorly estimated time frames and other things. In this film, for example, the characters are returned to Earth after a thousand years, and see that biological evolution has gone so far that the animals are quite different. This is not realistic. In addition, there is a bad tradition extol the dangers of science on its benefits, hence the dramatic plot. A lot of movies about artificial intelligence suggest that the AI will be very smart, but he would miss the key human emotions, therefore, the AI will be dangerous.
The secret to the predictions of the future?
30 years ago I realized that the secret to success will be a matter of time. Send me different technological ideas and I can say in 95% of the teams will be able to implement them, if they have the resources. But 95% of these projects fail, because time is not the way I guess. For example, the search engines – I know that they will begin to develop. Fifteen years ago, Larry Page and Sergey Brin were in the right place at the right time with the right idea.
You predicted search technology?
Yes. I wrote about this back in the 1980s. [The book was published in 1990]
And can you anticipate that you will be working for a company that started with the search technology?
It’s just something you can not predict. It was very difficult to guess that these two children Stanford take over the world search. But what I’ve learned for sure is that if you rate the key performance indicators of price and capacity of information technology, they line up in a surprisingly predictable smooth exponential curve. The cost of the performance of computers has grown exponentially since 1980. She went through thick and thin, through war and peace, and did not stop her. I think it will last until 2050. In 2013, we are on the curve where they should.
What are you working on Google?
My mission in Google is to develop a natural language understanding with a team of other developers at Google. Find out beyond simple keyword search, but he still searches through billions of pages in search of the semantic content. If you write a blog post, and you have something to say, you do not just write out the words and synonyms. We want the computers to understand the semantics, the meaning. If this happens, and I believe that it is possible, people will be able to ask more complex questions.
You are participating in the program by Jeff Dean to create an artificial “brain Google»?
Well, Jeff Dean is one of my employees. He is the leader among the researchers. We will use his system and technology of deep learning. The reason that I am on Google, the resources of this type. In addition a set of knowledge and advanced system parsing, and other advanced technologies – what I need for the project, which will be developed within the natural language understanding. At Google, it is much easier to do because of their technology.
If your system is truly understands complex natural language, you name it reasonable?
Yes, I shall name. I have a firm date – 2029 – for this prediction. And this includes not only the concept of logical intelligence. This includes emotional intelligence, which can be fun, playful, sweet, loving, understanding. This is the hardest thing we can do. This is what separates computers and people now. But I believe that by 2029, this gap will disappear.
Simplified if all with the help of the best computing and software and there are some outstanding issues, the obstacles?
There are requirements, both hardware and software. I believe we are close enough to the required level of software. Partly helps us a deep understanding of how the human brain works, and it is growing. Now we can look inside the living brain and see how thoughts are formed in real-time. We can see how the brain thinks, and how thoughts shape the mind. Many of these studies show how the mechanism of the cerebral cortex, and that is where thinking occurs. Biology inspires us to develop computers. We are already thinking emulate on computers. Deep learning techniques that I mentioned, using multi-layer neural networks, which are based on real ones. Using these models borrowed from biology, plus all the things that make developers for decades in the field of artificial intelligence, plus a continually improving hardware – we’ll get to the level of a man twenty years.
We really understand why a particular brain leads to a completely different expressions of human nature? Take the complex thinking of Einstein, the productivity of Steve Jobs or the result of the work of Larry Page. What makes these people so special? Do you have any thoughts on this?
In fact, I asked the question, especially about Einstein, in his latest book, “How to Create a Mind.”
Tell a minute.
There are a couple of things. First, our brain is created by our thoughts. We have a limited amount of cortex with capacity for approximately 300 million recognizers patterns arranged in a hierarchy. We create this hierarchy in their thinking. This does not mean that Einstein’s genius comes from the fact that he was 350 million and 400 million of them. All about equal opportunities. But he set up his brain so that he was deep in thought on a particular topic. He was fond of the violin, but did not Jasha Heifets. And Jascha Heifetz interested in physics but was not Einstein. We have the potential to work for the whole world, but in a particular segment. And it imposes certain restrictions on the brain, but Einstein was deeply concentrated in one.
But many physicists walk away with his head in his case, and only one was Einstein.
I’m not finished. The second aspect is the courage to follow their own thought experiment and not fall off the horse because the conclusions are very different from your previous assumptions or disagree with the beliefs of society. People are so unable to defend independent thinking away from peers, which immediately abandon their beliefs once come to absurd conclusions. Need a certain rod to defend their point of view. Obviously, it was Steve Jobs. He had a vision and he followed him. Call it a bold belief.
What is the biological basis of such courage? If you had an infinite ability to analyze the brain, you could say, “Oh, that’s where you have the courage!”.
This is the cerebral cortex, and the people who fill it with the tenacity of convictions peers, certainly will not be the next Einstein or Steve Jobs.
Can I control this?
Good question. I thought about it. Another thing I was thinking about why some people are willing to accept the exponential growth of information technologies and their impact, while others are immune. I came to the conclusion that due to our head connected with linear expectations, because 1000 years ago in the wild that helped track down the meat for lunch. Some people are easy to go on about the future when you present them with evidence, and others – not. I’m looking for an answer to the question: what causes it? It is not associated with achievement, intelligence, education or social status. The cerebral cortex of some people is arranged in such a way that they can accept the consequences that await them, not caring about the opinion of others. Can you learn it? I think so, but I can not prove.
Since we are talking about Steve Jobs, let me give you one of his famous quotes with a speech at Stanford. He said: “Death is very likely the single best invention of life. She – the cause of change. ” You valiantly trying to extend its life indefinitely, so certainly do not agree with this, right?
Yes, that’s what I call a “statement of suicide bombers”, taking the death of thousands of years as a good thing. One day, it made sense, because until recently you could not pick up a substantial argument, why would it take you immortality. Therefore, a religion that dominated when the science is, in fact, was not, said the following: “Oh, tragic outcome? What are you, that’s good. ” We found in this sense, as it took. But in my understanding of death – a tragedy. Our first reaction to someone’s death is accompanied by sorrow for ruined knowledge, skills, talents and relationships. It is foolish to think that there are a number of places, and if the old people do not die, the young will not be able to take their place as we are constantly increasing our knowledge. Larry Page and Sergey Brin, no one replaced – they have created a completely new field. Knowledge grows exponentially. Doubled every year.
And you think, seriously extended shelf life possible?
I think we have a fifteen-years from destination – longevity.
The technological singularity is near .
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Tags: Google , Future , Artificial Intelligence
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