Mathematical model predicts global spread of infectious diseases




Epidemiologists have developed sophisticated mathematical models to predict how infectious diseases spread worldwide. This is necessary because increased mobility infections becoming easier elaborate.

Three scientists published their model in the scientific journal Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems. In their research they describe a mathematical model that not only takes into account the number of infections by an individual, but also spread the disease because people travel. Epidemiologists describe their model as a 3D system ‘inflow’ and ‘outflow’ by traveling people.

The study shows that due to travel a lot more different kinds of equilibria in which an epidemic or not maintained. With a simple infection, where there is no influence of traveling people, it is sufficient that the “reproductive number”, the number of other people that on average an infected individual is under 1 in order to contain the epidemic. If, however, there are sources of infection are located in several areas which are connected to each other by traveling people, then the link between reproduction and whether or not maintaining the epidemic complicated. The model predicts epidemiologists so how does such an epidemic.

According to scientists, the phenomena described previously studied only separately. By integrating them into a model of the spread of infectious diseases should be able to be more precisely studied. The makers claim that it is a prototype that was not created for a specific infection, and thus improve future models.

The developed methodology is relevant because infectious diseases are becoming easier to spread globally through increased mobility. Recently, there was the fear that the Ebola epidemic in western Africa could spread quickly worldwide. Thus arose secondary infections in the United States and Spain, but further distributions could be contained.


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